The Future of "Non-Proliferation Treaty" and "Not First Use"

Summary:
    In this post, I am going to introduce some potentially effective regulation on military R&D inspired by Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Not First Use (NFU).


There have been wars and other violence since the beginning of human history, so it is not fair to blame high-tech weapons for violence. However, it is true that high-tech war enabled by high-tech weapons puts greater number of civilians and international relationships at greater risk. Besides steering military innovation to an appropriate pace, some effective regulation and treaty are necessary to restrict the usage of weapons of mass destruction.

Looking for a way to regulate weaponry R&D in a general sense, I find some existing restriction to the controversial nuclear weapon to be quotable: Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Not First Use (NFU). 

Today, a total of eight countries have successfully detonated nuclear weapons, five of which are considered to be "nuclear-weapon states" under the terms of the NPT. Opened for signature in 1968, NPT is an international treaty designed to: 1. prevent the spread of nuclear weapons technology; 2. promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy; 3. achieve nuclear disarmament and the resulting general disarmament. 189 countries and regions are now recognized as parties of the treaty. India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and South Sudan are the only five countries that withdrawn the treaty. NPT non-nuclear-weapon states agree never to acquire nuclear weapons, and the NPT nuclear-weapon states in exchange agree to share the benefits of technology of nuclear energy and to pursue nuclear disarmament aimed at the ultimate elimination of their nuclear arsenals. (UN text of the treaty)

NPT effectively stopped the potential arm race of nuclear weapon, and made the future of nuclear technology beneficial to most of the world. What if some similar treaty is design for other newly introduced subject of controversy such as military drones? Will it be beneficial for both non-military-drone countries and military-drone countries to share the possibility in civil applications, nonmilitary security work, scientific research, search and rescue, while agree never to put drones into military use? Is is possible to eventually achieve the goal of military drone disarmament, focusing merely on how to promote equity in the possession of drone technology?

Besides NPT, NFU is also a pledge worth attention. The concept of NFU was brought up by China back in 1964 when the country first gained nuclear capabilities and signed NPT. It refers to a pledge by a nuclear power not to use nuclear weapons as a means of warfare unless first attacked by an adversary using nuclear weapons. It seemed to be somewhat contrary to the attitudes of other NFU parties such as the US, who reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first in the case of any conflict, yet it is later adopted by India, a nuclear-weapon country who "considers NPT as a flawed treaty and it did not recognize the need for universal, non-discriminatory verification and treatment." (text of NFU)

NFU does not care if nuclear technology will be beneficial to the country itself or others; rather, it shows how great the determination of the country is to minimize the possibility of using nuclear weapons. Being somehow even stricter than NPT, NFU is desirable in not only nuclear weapons. Before nuclear weapons, NFU was earlier applied to chemical and biological warfare. What about other controversial weapons? For example, what if countries with most drone possession declare not to send military drones to war until the adversary first uses the technology? What if all the other subject of controversy like automatic weapons, biological weapons and robotics are restricted to NFU? Will a war between countries like this considered fairer and less likely to cause unintended casualties? 

I believe that in the near future, when more superpower acquire the technology of innovative weapons such as military drones, there will be more treaties similar to NPT and pledges similar to NFU come to the table, making the technologies beneficial and eliminating the threat of military R&D.